A severe diplomatic crisis has erupted between Japan and China, triggered by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s comments about potential military involvement in Taiwan-related scenarios. Beijing has responded by issuing a second travel advisory through its Tokyo embassy, warning Chinese citizens about purported dangers facing Chinese nationals in Japan. This represents the latest escalation in China’s strategy of using economic leverage to punish Japan for its increasingly assertive stance on Taiwan security issues.
The projected economic damage to Japan is staggering. Economist Takahide Kiuchi estimates the travel advisory could drain approximately 1.8 trillion yen ($11.5 billion) from Japan’s economy, potentially reducing annual growth by 0.3 percentage points. China had been on track to reclaim its position as Japan’s largest source of international tourists, with more than 8 million Chinese visitors arriving in the first ten months of the year, accounting for 23% of total foreign arrivals according to the Japan National Tourism Organization.
Japanese tourism entrepreneurs are experiencing immediate and severe impacts from the diplomatic fallout. In Tokyo’s historic Asakusa district, Rie Takeda runs a traditional tearoom specializing in authentic tea ceremony experiences for international guests. She has recorded 200 cancellations for bookings extending into January, a significant blow to her business that typically serves approximately 3,000 Chinese tourists annually. While Takeda expresses optimism about potential recovery around Chinese New Year in February, experts caution that previous diplomatic incidents have resulted in tourism disruptions lasting many months or even years.
The diplomatic confrontation is generating consequences across multiple dimensions of bilateral relations. Chinese authorities have postponed the release of two Japanese films in Chinese markets without explanation, while Shanghai performance venues cancelled scheduled appearances by Japanese entertainment groups. Japanese industrial sectors are growing increasingly anxious about potential restrictions on rare earth mineral imports from China, materials that are critical for automotive manufacturing and electronics production. Meanwhile, China’s two-year prohibition on Japanese seafood imports continues with no indication of being lifted.
The core dispute involves conflicting interpretations of the “One China” framework and the 1972 agreement that normalized diplomatic relations. China insists Japan must explicitly affirm Chinese sovereignty over Taiwan, while Japan’s historical diplomatic language stated it “fully understands and respects” China’s assertion that Taiwan is an “inalienable part” of Chinese territory, stopping short of direct endorsement. Prime Minister Takaichi has since walked back her comments, explaining she was responding honestly to hypothetical questions rather than announcing policy changes, while pledging to maintain strategic, mutually beneficial relations with China.